September 25 - 26, 2023

Country Risk Analysis and Management

Assessing and Managing Sovereign Default & Country ESG Risks

Agenda Program Online
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Prague, NH Hotel Prague
Hybrid Training
Both classroom and online training available
Price for online training
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Attend this intensive 2-day training and learn how to:

Identify, classify and assess the main country risks in any developed or emerging market
Easily distinguish the political, economic, fiscal, external and global/geopolitical risks
Present the main country risks, baseline view, and latest developments of country risk
Identify and present the main downside risks, including worst-case scenario, stress testing
Identify the most appropriate methods of country risk management to your portfolio
Course Description

This intensive 2-day training program prepares participants for the growing country and geopolitical risks: The return of country risk analysis in banking and financial risk management.

On the first day we examine the complete overview of country risks: In the morning we will begin with the definitions and concepts, the taxonomy of country risks; sovereign ratings main sources of information for monitoring; Sovereign Ratings and history of defaults/recovery; country risk main methodologies (scorecards, quantitative models, credit ratings); and the Country Risk Early Warning Indicators. In the afternoon, we will cover the Sovereign Rating Core Drivers: Political, Legal and Governance Risk; Economic Growth and Structure, Recession Risk; Fiscal Flexibility Risks: Government Balance, financing & Fiscal Debt Structure; External imbalance risk; exchange rate risks; liquidity & refinance risks; External Debt structure; Monetary Risk & banking sector Risks, monetary policies.

On the second day we begin by a detailed analysis of the Country downside risks considerations and other country risks: with 2 parts: In the morning: Downside risks and scenarios: Introduction on Macro Scenarios, Taxonomy; Fiscal and External Debt Sustainability; Assessments: the concepts, IMF tools and non-sovereign country risks: Impact of sovereign risk on non-sovereign counterparties; Sovereign ceilings and rating government supported entities; Banking Sector Risk; other Country risks, including Climate Change, Sovereign ESG risks. In the afternoon, we will cover the main methods of Country Risk Management: Country Risk Monitoring: Watching, Monitoring and Due diligence; the Country Risk Mitigation techniques (hedging, insuring); the Limiting Non- Sovereign Country Risks; and finally the Generative Risk Management Tools: Sovereign Stress Testing and Scenario analysis.

What is the goal of this training?

The goal of the training is to make sure that your company understands Country Risk and can act with the right confidence and appropriate assessment and management techniques. It will well your employees to understand country risk by identifying, classifying, and assessing economic, financial and political factors, that impact it. On a more practical basis, students will be able to present data in a summarised way, study the main country risks, present baseline view, and latest developments of country risk; identify and present the main downside risks; and its latest management techniques.

Who should attend?
  • Directors/Board Members of Financial Institutions
  • Country Risk and Sovereign Analysts in financial institutions
  • Economists in global companies
  • Country AML/Reputational/ESG Experts
  • Wholesale Credit Risks Analysts
  • Sovereign Stress Testing and Scenario Analysts


This training consists of classroom-based teaching combined with interactive group exercises, as well as the introduction of specific case studies.
PDF brochure with all details about the Country Risk Analysis and Management seminar is available on request.

Program of the seminar: Country Risk Analysis and Management

The seminar timetable follows Central European Time (CET).

09.00 - 09.15 Welcome and Introduction

09.15 - 12.15 Taxonomy of country risks & sovereign risk assessments

  • Country Risk: Why, What, Where
    • General Introduction to the CRA course
    • Country Risk definition, concepts and taxonomy of country risks
    • Sovereign Ratings main sources of information for monitoring
    • Current Sovereign Ratings and History of Defaults/recovery
    • Examples of Sovereign defaults and Non-sovereign CR, and their impact
  • Assessing Country Risks
    • Country Risk Methodologies (scorecards, quantitative models, credit ratings)
    • Sovereign Ratings: are they a good predictor of Sovereign Risks?
    • Country Risk Early Warning Indicators
    • Examples of Country reports: Sovereign Rating reports; and Country Risk Reports

Sovereign Rating Core Drivers (I) - Political, Economic and Fiscal risks

  • Drivers of sovereign ratings: not all is politics and debt
  • Political, legal and governance Risk
    • Prudence, coherence and stability of policies
    • Efficiency and stability of institutions
    • Degree of political freedom/Democracy/Human rights:
    • Domestic and external security
  • Economic growth and structure, recession risk
    • Wealth of the country;
    • trend and volatility of GDP growth
    • Private sector soundness; Adjustment factors
  • Fiscal Flexibility Risks:
    • Government balance,
    • Financing & Fiscal Debt Structure
  • Examples of political risks, reading economic and fiscal tables (IMF)

12.00 - 13.00 Lunch break

13.15 - 17.00 Sovereign Rating Core Drivers (II) - External & Monetary Risks

  • External imbalance risk:
    • Balance of payments risks;
    • Exchange rate risks
    • Capital & financial account; Liquidity & Refinance risks
    • External debt structure
  • Monetary Risk & banking sector Risks,
    • Banking crises risks as a contingent liability risk
    • Independence, efficiency and prudence of monetary policies.
  • Examples of sovereign event risks and their impact

09.00 - 09.15 Brief recap

09.15 - 12.15 Country downside risks, Non-Sovereign Risks & ESG Risks

  • Country downside risks:
    • Introduction on macro scenarios: What can go wrong?
    • Downside scenarios and examples (Greece, Turkey)
    • Fiscal and external debt sustainability;
    • Debt sustainability assessments: the concepts, IMF tools
    • Practical examples and small Exercises
  • Non-sovereign country risks & Country ESG Risks:
    • Impact of sovereign risk on non-sovereign counterparties
    • Sovereign ceilings methodology and rating government supported entities
    • Assessing the sovereign-bank nexus of risk
    • Other country risks, including climate change, other sovereign ESG risks
    • Examples of non-sovereign risks impacting sovereigns

12.00 - 13.00 Lunch break

13.15 - 17.00 Country Risk Management

  • A reminder: the scope of risks to manage is large
  • Country Risk Monitoring
    • Monitoring techniques
    • Tailored lists: country risk watchlists, dashboards
    • Integrate Sovereign ESG in due diligence
  • Country Risk Mitigation techniques
    • Political risk insurance; Diversification
    • Risk transferring with Credit Default Swaps (CDS); Currency hedging
    • Contingency planning/crisis management
  • Limiting Non-Sovereign Country Risks
    • Local partnerships; Legal support
    • Reputational management
  • Generative Risk Management Tools
    • Sovereign stress testing
    • Sovereign scenario analysis
  • Practical Examples and Small Exercises

Summary, Evaluation and Termination of the Seminar

Training catalogue in PDF
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